Snapshot (Oct. 23, 2025)

A fresh UNH poll reported today shows Graham Platner leading among likely Democratic primary voters at 58%, with Gov. Janet Mills at 24%; others register <1%. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3} Separately, AP and other outlets report that Janet Mills is expected to enter the Senate race, reshaping the field and donor dynamics. :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4} The Democratic primary isn’t until June 9, 2026 (ranked-choice voting), leaving ample time for volatility. :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}

Key Dates (Maine)

• Primary (Ranked-Choice): Tue, June 9, 2026. :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}
• General Election: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (federal + state races). :contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}
• Financial filings / activity: Monitor the FEC dashboard for cash, burn, and late-quarter surges. :contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}

Recent Headlines & Market Movers

• Tattoo controversy: Platner said he will remove a chest tattoo resembling a Nazi “Totenkopf,” amid intra-party backlash; he denies any extremist intent. :contentReference[oaicite:9]{index=9}
• Primary ‘war’ escalates: National Dems vs. progressive allies are split on Platner vs. Mills; Axios frames an intensifying fight. :contentReference[oaicite:10]{index=10}
• Field still growing: Businessman Dan Kleban recently jumped in, signaling continued fluidity. :contentReference[oaicite:11]{index=11}

How to Read These Lines (Quick Framework)

• Price → Probability: Treat price/% as implied probability, then haircut for fees/spread/slippage.
• Depth over last print: Watch refill speed after sweeps; thin books can make last print misleading.
• Catalysts: New polls (UNH/PPP/local universities), formal entry/exit announcements, major endorsements, fundraising reports, and any credibility hits (oppo, controversies) can move both markets quickly.