Snapshot (Oct. 23, 2025)

New polling continues to show Abigail Spanberger (D) ahead of Winsome Earle-Sears (R). A fresh Washington Post–Schar School survey conducted Oct. 16–20 shows Spanberger +12. Earlier this week, VCU’s Commonwealth Poll had Spanberger 49% to Earle-Sears 42% (7-pt lead), indicating a Democratic edge with some tightening late. Use the embeds above to see how markets are pricing that mix of data in real time.

Debate & Key Dates

• Gubernatorial debate: Oct. 9 at Norfolk State University (Nexstar). Coverage framed it as likely the cycle’s only head-to-head.
• Early in-person voting: Sept. 19 – Nov. 1, 2025 (statewide). Check your locality’s hours/locations.
• Last day to register / update: Oct. 24, 2025 (same-day registration also available at early voting and on Election Day in VA).
• Election Day: Tue, Nov. 4, 2025.

Trading Catalysts (What Can Move the Lines)

• Late polls & LV screens: Credible late releases (WaPo/Schar, VCU, Wason, etc.) can swing a 70/30 line several points.
• Ticket-wide narratives: Coverage tying down-ballot controversies to the top of the ticket can cause brief repricing—watch whether they stick.
• Early-vote data & turnout: County-level EV patterns (VPAP dashboards, local registrars) often drive the final market drift.